![]() – Updated March 27th, 2021 Big picture handicapping pays off, even in MMAĪs sports bettors, we’ve come to lean on what the industry calls ‘situational handicapping.’ The home/road splits and the various ATS/ML trends that many of us have come to know and love. On the women’s side, the underdog in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division has been a cash machine, going 16-24-1 for +10.1 units since the start of last year. Meanwhile, the favorite in the UFC Men’s Flyweight division has been putting up numbers, winning 27 of the last 36 fights in this division, profiting for +7.84 units on the moneyline over the last 15 months. The ‘Over’ in the Women’s Bantamweight division has been the hottest division trend to back since January of last year, cashing in 24 of the last 25 fights at women’s 135lbs, profiting for +8.69 units. While a profit of just +1.38 units is nothing to call home about, we have seen a number of heavy underdogs come through so far this year, which has allowed dog backers to stay afloat, even with fewer wins than losses. ![]() The chalk fighter has cashed at a 61.2% rate so far in 2021, but the underdog has been the value side, even at a 36.2% rate. Meanwhile, the ‘Over’ has cashed at an even higher rate so far this year, going 73-41-2 for +7.21 units profit. An ROI of +$5.24 profit, per fight, win or lose. A $100 bettor who has backed the ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ prop in every fight this year has profited +$608 after nine events. MMA bettors are never one to turn away from a good fight, and we’ve had a ton of those since the start of this year, with 61 of the first 116 UFC bouts so far in 2021 going the distance.
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